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Assessment of flood risk using space technology in Matuga state, Kenya’s coastal area

Flooding poses significant environmental, social and economic challenges globally. With ever-increasing, weather extremes induced by climate change, flooding becomes frequent and severe, particularly in coastal regions like Matuga state in Kenya. Therefore, this study assesses flood risk and its spatial distribution focusing on the interplay between land use land cover, elevation, slope, soil type and rainfall. Using remote sensing data and GIS techniques, a flood risk map for Matuga was generated to identify vulnerable zones. The result signifies that poorly vegetated areas combined with steep topography and high rainfall intensity are key contributors to flooding. Conversely, areas dominated by Ferralic Arenosols and Dystric Arenosols coupled with low slope and extensive shrub cover exhibit lower flood risks. The findings of this study provide critical insights for policymakers, urban planners and environmental managers in designing sustainable flood mitigation strategies. This study underscores the importance of integrating sustainable land management and land use planning in flood risk management for climate-resilient development in Matuga, Kenya.

Interview with Lilian Nguracha Balanga, Founder of Women.conserve

Short description of the Samburu community

The Samburu community is the Nilotic ethnic community of North Central Kenya. They dress in red shukas and adorn themselves with necklaces, bracelets and anklets mostly from beads. They believe in God Nkai, living in the mountains. They are nomadic are pastoralists, meaning that they keep animals (e.g., cows, goats, sheep and camel) which is their main source of livelihood as they get milk, meat and blood for self consumption and/or to be sold. They move from place to place in search of pasture and water.

Interview with Harriette Okal, Associate Scientist, Stockholm Environment Institute

How do you professionally relate to water and/or space technologies?

As a hydrologist, I’ve always been fascinated by the potential of space technologies in transforming water resource management. My work integrates satellite-based Earth Observation (EO) data with hydrological modelling, particularly for drought and flood monitoring, and water availability assessments in regions with scarce ground data. EO technologies allow me to capture real-time, high-resolution data, critical for climate resilience, especially in Sub-Saharan Africa.

Interview with Felix Kasiti, PhD Researcher, University of Stirling

I am currently a PhD candidate at the University of Stirling in Scotland, funded by the Natural Environmental Research Council through the IAPETUS DTP. My research focuses on using SAR Polarimetry to map and monitor floods in Scotland and Guyana. Additionally, I use ground radar to understand signal interactions under simulated flooding conditions, aiming to improve flood detection. My goal is to enhance the management and protection of floodplains and wetlands through advanced radar satellite technology and field-tested methodologies. Before my PhD, I worked as an assistant hydrologist at the SERVIR Eastern and Southern Africa project at the Regional Centre for Mapping of Resources for Development in Nairobi, Kenya, from 2019 to 2022. In this position, I led the development of an operational hydrological model that improved access to hydrological data for ungauged rivers in East Africa. I was also the lead hydrologist in the implementation of a flood early warning system in Malawi, integrating ground measurements and satellite-derived water level data to issue flood forecasts.

Interview with Harriette Okal, Associate Scientist, Stockholm Environment Institute

How do you professionally relate to water and/or space technologies?

As a hydrologist, I’ve always been fascinated by the potential of space technologies in transforming water resource management. My work integrates satellite-based Earth Observation (EO) data with hydrological modelling, particularly for drought and flood monitoring, and water availability assessments in regions with scarce ground data. EO technologies allow me to capture real-time, high-resolution data, critical for climate resilience, especially in Sub-Saharan Africa.

Interview with Felix Kasiti, PhD Researcher, University of Stirling

I am currently a PhD candidate at the University of Stirling in Scotland, funded by the Natural Environmental Research Council through the IAPETUS DTP. My research focuses on using SAR Polarimetry to map and monitor floods in Scotland and Guyana. Additionally, I use ground radar to understand signal interactions under simulated flooding conditions, aiming to improve flood detection. My goal is to enhance the management and protection of floodplains and wetlands through advanced radar satellite technology and field-tested methodologies. Before my PhD, I worked as an assistant hydrologist at the SERVIR Eastern and Southern Africa project at the Regional Centre for Mapping of Resources for Development in Nairobi, Kenya, from 2019 to 2022. In this position, I led the development of an operational hydrological model that improved access to hydrological data for ungauged rivers in East Africa. I was also the lead hydrologist in the implementation of a flood early warning system in Malawi, integrating ground measurements and satellite-derived water level data to issue flood forecasts.

Interview with Lilian Nguracha Balanga, Founder of Women.conserve

Short description of the Samburu community

The Samburu community is the Nilotic ethnic community of North Central Kenya. They dress in red shukas and adorn themselves with necklaces, bracelets and anklets mostly from beads. They believe in God Nkai, living in the mountains. They are nomadic are pastoralists, meaning that they keep animals (e.g., cows, goats, sheep and camel) which is their main source of livelihood as they get milk, meat and blood for self consumption and/or to be sold. They move from place to place in search of pasture and water.

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Stakeholder

Global Water Partnership

The Global Water Partnership (GWP) is a global action network with over 3,000 Partner organisations in 179 countries. The network has 69 accredited Country Water Partnerships and 13 Regional Water Partnerships.

The network is open to all organisations involved in water resources management: developed and developing country government institutions, agencies of the United Nations, bi- and multi-lateral development banks, professional associations, research institutions, non-governmental organisations, and the private sector.

University of Zimbabwe: Department of Construction and Civil Engineering

The Department of Construction and Civil Engineering at the University of Zimbabwe is one of the 8 departments in the Faculty of Engineering and Built Environment.The department is already a major center for water and sanitation engineering through its MSc programmes which have produced graduates from eastern and southern Africa. The department also boasts of soil and material and timber research facilities which can be used to benefit the country at large.

Zimbabwe National Geospatial and Space Agency

The Zimbabwe National Geospatial and Space Agency (ZINGSA) is a wholly owned Government of Zimbabwe entity, established under the Research act [Chapter 10:20]. It is responsible for designing, promoting, coordinating and conducting research and development initiatives that promote advances in Geospatial Sciences and Earth Observations, Space Engineering, Space Science, Aeronautical Engineering, Mechatronics, Satellite Communication Systems, Global Navigation Satellite Systems (GNSS), Land Positioning Systems, Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAV) and Launch of Satellites.

Groundwater Relief

Groundwater Relief is a charity that provides specialist groundwater support to the humanitarian and development sectors. The support is delivered through staff and a global membership of groundwater experts.

Kenya Space Agency

The Kenya Space Agency (KSA) was established under the Ministry of Defence, as the successor to the National Space Secretariat (NSS), by Executive Order through Legal Notice No. 22 of 7th March 2017 with the mandate to promote, coordinate and regulate space related activities in the country.
Vision: The vision of the Agency is to be the premier Space Agency in promotion of access and effective utilization of Space Economy for national sustainable development.

Directorate of Resource Surveys and Remote Sensing, Kenya

The Directorate of Resource Surveys and Remote Sensing (DRSRS) is a key government agency in Kenya, established in 1977 under the Ministry of Environment and Natural Resources, but now under the Executive Office of the President. DRSRS is renowned for its work in mapping and monitoring natural resources and environmental changes through advanced remote sensing and GIS (Geographic Information Systems) technologies.

Omanos Analytics

We founded Omanos with the mission of using space data analysis to empower communities around the world, and to bring the benefits of satellite data insights to a wider audience. Much of our work has used satellite data analysis to reveal the social and environmental impacts of, e.g., mining, agriculture, and the hydrocarbon industry across four continents for range of clients – international NGOs, governments, supra-national bodies including the European Space Agency and the UK Space Agency.

Geomatics Research Group at the Institute of Geography of the Ruhr-University Bochum

Located in the center of the dynamic Ruhr metropolitan region, the Ruhr University, with its 21 faculties, is home to 41,600 students from over 130 countries studying one of the 61 Bachelor and 128 Master programs. "Built to Change" is the guiding principle of the Ruhr University. Since 1965, it has been the driving force behind the transformation from a mining district to a knowledge region.

Person

mugshot of the person

Viola Kemunto Orina

Geo-information and Data Engineer Kenya Space Agency

Viola Orina's experience at the Kenya Space Agency directly aligns with the thematic focus of the upcoming conference on "Space Technology for Water Management." Having been involved in projects centered around the practical application of space technology, particularly in monitoring water extents using satellite imagery and remote sensing techniques, Viola brings an understanding of the regional dynamics, challenges, and opportunities pertaining to water resources.

mugshot of the person

Erick Villah Okeyo

Space Communicator Kenya Space Agency

Erick Okeyo is a seasoned Space communications specialist, with over a decade of experience within the space industry. In his capacity at the Kenya Space Agency, Erick's primary responsibility involves distilling complex scientific and IT concepts from his organization and devising strategic methods to effectively communicate this information to diverse audiences, both domestically and internationally.

Photo of Felix Isundwa Kasiti

Felix Kasiti

PhD Researcher University of Stirling

Felix is a PhD researcher at the University of Stirling, Stirling, UK, researching on the use of Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) in mapping floods. He recently worked as a hydrologist with SERVIR Eastern and Southern Africa project at the Regional Centre for Mapping of Resources for Development, Nairobi, Kenya from 2019 to 2022. 
 
In 2018, he obtained his M.Sc. degree on Water Science (Policy) from the Pan African University Institute of Water and Energy Sciences (PAUWES). Attained his B.Sc.

Space-based Solution

Addressed challenge(s)

The disappearance of Lake Ol’ Bolossat: a threat to biodiversity, livelihoods and water security in central Kenya

Collaborating actors (stakeholders, professionals, young professionals or Indigenous voices)
Suggested solution

To establish an integrated monitoring and decision-support system that uses Earth Observation data and machine learning to track the status of Lake Ol' Bolossat, enabling evidence-based conservation and sustainable development actions.

Requirements

Data

Below is a table showing the data requirements and sources.

Data sourceUse casePeriod
JRC GSWHistorical water extents1984 - 2023
Sentinel-1 SARWater extent during cloud-cover seasons2014 - present
Sentinel-2 2 MSIHabitat classification, NDVI, MNDWI, NDBI2015 - present
MODISNDVI/ET anomalies and drought indicators2000 - present
Rainfall and climate (CHIRPS/ERA5)Climate trend correlation with hydrological changes1984 - present
Population/Human settlement (WorldPop, GHSL)Land use pressure mapping2000 - present
Field surveys and local NGO dataValidation and community-level observationsAs available

Software

The analysis is being done using open-source platforms and software: Google Earth Engine and QGIS.

To access Google Earth Engine, one needs a Google account that will be linked to the platform link. If you are new to the platform, create an account, and you can start using it. If you already have an account, just sign in and be directed to the code editor. If you are new to the software, you can access the training manual here.

To access QGIS, you need to download it as it is a software, link. If you are new to the software, you can access the training manual here.

Physical

  1. Establishment of Ground Monitoring Stations
  • Purpose: To validate satellite data and collect real-time, on-the-ground water level, rainfall, and biodiversity observations.
  • Components: Water gauges, weather sensors, camera traps for biodiversity, and simple soil moisture probes.

 

  1. Community Information Boards or Digital Kiosks
  • Purpose: To display maps, water level trends, and habitat updates to residents in a simplified, accessible format.
  • Location: Strategic points around the lake (e.g., near schools, water collection points, community centers).

 

  1. Buffer Zone Demarcation and Fencing
  • Purpose: To physically protect critical wetland habitats and prevent encroachment or grazing in sensitive areas.
  • Details: Fencing or natural barriers like vegetation planting along designated riparian zones.

 

  1. Construction of a Local Conservation and Data Hub
  • Purpose: To provide a space for community meetings, training sessions, citizen science coordination, and storing field equipment.
  • Location: Ideally within a local government or NGO compound near the lake.

 

  1. Rehabilitation of Degraded Wetlands
  • Purpose: Restore areas where the lakebed or surrounding wetlands have been severely altered.
  • Methods: Planting of indigenous wetland vegetation, removal of invasive species, and controlled re-wetting.

 

  1. Water Resource Management Infrastructure
  • Purpose: To improve the regulation and sustainable use of the lake's water.
  • Examples: Controlled inflow/outflow channels, community-led irrigation management systems, water pans for livestock to reduce direct lake access.

 

  1. Signage and Protected Area Boundary Markers
  • Purpose: To raise awareness of Lake Ol’ Bolossat’s legal protection status and to visually communicate boundaries to land users.
  • Materials: Durable signs, educational posters, and protected area plaques.

 

  1. Solar-Powered Connectivity Units (Optional but strategic)
  • Purpose: For uplinking field sensor data or enabling access to the online dashboard in remote locations.
  • Components: Solar panels, GSM routers, rugged tablets or data loggers.

Outline steps for a solution

Phase 1: Planning and Stakeholder Engagement – To do

The first phase involves defining the objectives of the monitoring system and identifying measurable success indicators aligned with conservation priorities and local needs. This is followed by engaging key stakeholders such as the National Environment Management Authority (NEMA), Kenya Wildlife Service (KWS), Water Resources Authority (WRA), Nyandarua County Government, and local community-based organizations. Stakeholder consultations are critical for gathering input on data needs, identifying decision-making gaps, and ensuring buy-in from both policy actors and community leaders. A situational analysis should be conducted to map existing infrastructure, technical capacity, internet access, and human resources available on the ground, helping to identify opportunities and constraints for implementation.

Phase 2: Data Collection and System Design – In progress

In this phase, a comprehensive monitoring framework is developed, specifying the key indicators to be tracked, such as seasonal water extent, land cover transitions, and flood-prone zones. Relevant Earth observation datasets are selected, including Sentinel-1 SAR for water extent, Sentinel-2 for habitat classification, JRC Global Surface Water for historical trends, and CHIRPS for rainfall data. A prototype dashboard is developed using Google Earth Engine, visualizing these datasets through maps, time series graphs, and interactive overlays. Simultaneously, field validation activities are conducted to ground-truth satellite-derived maps. This includes collecting GPS points, photos, and observations on vegetation, land use, and visible signs of degradation, ensuring the remote sensing outputs are accurate and contextually relevant.

Phase 3: System Testing and Expansion – To do

Once the prototype is ready, it is tested with stakeholders through pilot sessions and community workshops. These engagements are used to collect feedback on the dashboard’s usability, relevance, and user experience, particularly for non-technical audiences. Revisions are made to improve clarity, layer toggling, labelling, and interpretability. In parallel, basic physical interventions begin, such as the installation of simple water gauges, informational signboards, and boundary markers for conservation zones. These elements help translate digital insights into tangible tools for the community. Plans for expanding field infrastructure, such as creating buffer zones or establishing a local conservation hub, are also explored during this phase.

Phase 4: Deployment and Knowledge Sharing – In progress

Following successful pilot testing and system refinement, the full monitoring platform is deployed on a publicly accessible hosting environment, such as Firebase, Earth Engine Apps, or a custom-built website. The platform is shared with agencies and conservation partners, accompanied by a rollout plan that includes formal training sessions. These capacity-building workshops are designed to empower users, ranging from government officers to youth groups, with the skills to interpret dashboard outputs and use the data in planning and response. User guides, translated materials, and offline summaries are provided to support long-term usability and local ownership.

Phase 5: Monitoring, Maintenance, and Scaling – To do

The final phase focuses on monitoring the performance and real-world impact of the system. Regular evaluations are conducted to assess usage, data accuracy, stakeholder engagement, and improvements in environmental decision-making. Lessons learned are used to refine system features, add new datasets, and introduce functionalities such as alert notifications or mobile-friendly access. The success of the Lake Ol’ Bolossat solution creates a foundation for scaling to other endangered wetlands across Kenya, such as Lakes Baringo, Naivasha, or Kanyaboli. Finally, the project contributes to the broader Space4Water and open science communities by publishing methods, code, and findings on platforms like GitHub and Earth Engine’s asset repository, ensuring transparency, replicability, and collaboration.

Results

The Lake Ol’ Bolossat monitoring system, currently at prototype stage, holds significant potential to transform how freshwater ecosystems are managed at local and national levels. By integrating satellite-derived water and habitat data into an accessible dashboard, the system aims to bridge the gap between Earth observation science and on-the-ground conservation action. Once implemented with key stakeholders and end users, the following impacts are anticipated:

  1. Support for Environmental Agencies and County Governments: The system could enhance the capacity of institutions such as the National Environment Management Authority (NEMA), Kenya Wildlife Service (KWS), Water Resources Authority (WRA), and the Nyandarua County Government by providing timely, location-specific data for decision-making on lake and wetland management.
  2. Early Warning for Hydrological and Ecological Risks: The dashboard could enable stakeholders to detect abnormal patterns in water extent, such as persistent shrinkage or sudden expansion, triggering early intervention to prevent ecological degradation or disaster impacts on nearby communities.
  3. Community Awareness and Engagement: By visualizing seasonal and long-term changes, the system can be used to build awareness among residents, farmers, and water users around Lake Ol’ Bolossat, empowering them to engage in sustainable practices and to advocate for the protection of the lake.
  4. Policy-Relevant Monitoring Tool: The platform can serve as a long-term environmental monitoring tool to support the implementation of wetland protection policies, local water catchment strategies, and integrated land use planning frameworks.
  5. Scalability to Other Freshwater Ecosystems: Once validated, the approach used at Lake Ol’ Bolossat can be adapted to other small inland water bodies across Kenya and East Africa, particularly those facing similar risks of drying, encroachment, or biodiversity loss.
  6. Alignment with Global and National Development Goals: The system supports Kenya’s contributions to Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), particularly:
  • SDG 6: Ensure availability and sustainable management of water and sanitation
  • SDG 13: Take urgent action to combat climate change and its impacts
  • SDG 15: Protect, restore and promote sustainable use of terrestrial ecosystems and halt biodiversity loss
Related space-based solutions
Keywords (for the solution)
Climate Zone (addressed by the solution)
Habitat (addressed by the solution)
Region/Country (the solution was designed for, if any)
Relevant SDGs